From Red Sea trade routes to Sahelian security alliances, Africa’s political landscape is constantly shifting—reshaped by local dynamics and global influence alike. In this context, leaders across sectors are recognising that success on the continent depends not just on understanding markets, but understanding the forces that govern them. Geopolitical research is the compass that helps navigate that complexity. It’s how decision-makers get ahead of the curve, rather than reacting to it.
What Is Geopolitical Research?
Geopolitical research is the study and interpretation of the political, geographical, economic, and cultural forces that shape power dynamics between nations, regions, and influential actors. It examines how these forces affect the movement of goods and people, the draughting of policies, the outcomes of elections, and the drawing of borders. In the African context, this research often goes beyond formal channels. It involves unpacking not only government decisions or bilateral treaties, but also less-visible factors like traditional authority, informal economies, and the influence of international partners.
This kind of research is both wide-ranging and grounded. It draws on a variety of sources, including media reports, diplomatic statements, field-based intelligence, and historical patterns, to synthesise insights that inform strategic thinking. In short, geopolitical research connects the dots between what’s happening, why it’s happening, and what it could mean for those operating in or with African states.
Why Geopolitical Research Matters in Africa
Africa is made up of dozens of political environments, each with its own history, power structures, and regional affiliations. At the same time, there’s growing convergence as countries increasingly engage in continental partnerships, international diplomacy, and cross-border economic initiatives. This mix of diversity and integration creates a highly dynamic political landscape, where understanding the geopolitical context is key to navigating risk and spotting opportunity.
The benefits of investing in this type of insight are multifaceted. Geopolitical research enables organisations to anticipate disruptions, such as conflict, policy shifts, or regime changes. It helps identify where alliances are forming or breaking down, which can have material implications for trade, investment, and security. In sectors like energy, infrastructure, or technology, where long-term planning is essential, these insights can be the difference between success and miscalculation.
For development actors and NGOs, geopolitical context ensures that programming aligns with the actual political environment. For private sector players, it can determine where capital is safest, which regions are reform-ready, and how to position offerings in relation to national agendas or regional blocs.
Geopolitical Research in Action: Africa’s Shifting Landscape
To understand the value of geopolitical research in practice, it helps to look at recent developments shaping African politics and business.
In early 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, granting it access to the Red Sea. While this agreement was framed as a trade and infrastructure milestone, its geopolitical ripple effects were immediate. Somalia, which does not recognise Somaliland’s independence, and denounced the deal as a breach of sovereignty. Analysts quickly pointed to potential maritime tensions, increased regional polarisation, and heightened involvement from foreign actors—particularly those with interests in Red Sea navigation and Horn of Africa stability.
Further west, the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) marks a fundamental shift in the region’s security and diplomatic alignment. These military-led governments have exited the ECOWAS bloc and begun reimagining regional cooperation on their own terms. This realignment has implications not just for diplomacy, but for foreign assistance, security cooperation, and trade flows throughout the Sahel and beyond.
And in places like Djibouti, the geopolitical story is one of convergence. The country now hosts military bases for multiple global powers, including China, the United States, France, and Japan, making it a focal point for competing interests in the Horn of Africa. This militarised proximity affects not only security dynamics but trade, diplomacy, and national sovereignty.
Seeing the Landscape Clearly: IOA’s Contribution
At In On Africa, geopolitical research is not about generic risk assessments or surface-level summaries. Our work is rooted in contextual intelligence—combining in-country knowledge with regional trend analysis to deliver insights that are both accurate and actionable. We track not just the headlines, but the undercurrents: shifting alliances, political realignments, external influence, and emerging regional power centres. Whether supporting governments, international donors, or private companies, our role is to connect the dots.
Strategic Clarity Starts with Deeper Insight
In a world where political dynamics shape everything from market access to diplomatic influence, geopolitical research is a strategic imperative. In Africa, where the stakes are high and the variables many, it’s a tool for resilience, opportunity, and long-term planning. For organisations seeking to operate effectively on the continent, understanding the geopolitical landscape is not a side consideration—it’s the foundation.
To explore how IOA’s geopolitical research services can support your strategy, view our dedicated service page below.