Analysis in brief: No continent will see population growth like Africa in the 21st century. Whether this growth brings economic progress, or the reverse, betterment of social services or their collapse and a strengthening of democracy or political chaos depends on planning and visionary leadership.
Even with deadly pandemics occuring like the COVID-19 outbreak of 2020, the remaining 80 years of the 21st century will see huge rises in Africa’s population numbers. Within the next 30 years, as the world’s population is expected by the UN to increase by 2 billion persons, from 7.7 billion today to 9.7 billion in 2050, five of the nine countries that will constitute more than half of that growth will be located in Africa. They are in order of their growth: Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Egypt. The aforementioned countries have one thing in common. In 2020, each country is experiencing some degree of political disruption, from a terrorist insurgency in Nigeria, rebel warfare in DRC, and degrees of encroaching authoritarianism in Egypt, Ethiopia and Tanzania. One fear of political observers is that as populations grow and strain available resources and degrade the environment, political instability will increase.
Analysis in brief: Africa’s water needs are accelerating. Populations are growing just as traditional water sources are endangered by climate change. Technological innovations are showing promising ways to tap into water sources that always existed but, before now, could not be accessed.
Africa’s quest for water sources to sustain life pre-dates modernity. However, with every economic activity tied to availability of water, from agriculture to mining, tourism to manufacturing, demands on water supply are ever-growing. The continent’s ability to increase equitable prosperity and sustain population growth requires new thinking at a time when climate change is diminishing water security. Meanwhile, pockets of rural Africa continue the same struggle as their ancestors: accessing a bare minimum of water to sustain human life, some crops and animals. Morocco, a largely desert and mountainous country, experiences uneven water distribution, and its water policies must target usage by urban areas and industry without neglecting rural community needs. Various technologies are being explored or utilised by Morocco to harvest water, sometimes from unusual sources, and to store, mitigate wastage and facilitate distribution. Other African nations both north and south are looking at Morocco’s innovations to gauge their effectivness. One exciting method of finding a new source of water is the harvesting of mountain clouds and fog. While this method cannot meet the water needs of large populations, the requirements of small mountain communities that have been perpetually in want of water can be met.
Analysis in brief: Southern Africa’s first terrorist insurgency is casting doubt on progress to commercially exploit Mozambique’s promising natural gas deposits. Mozambique’s government has been unable to thwart the terror attacks, offering little hope for relief to multinational energy giants at work in the country.
The reaction of two of the largest oil companies at work in Mozambique, Total and ExxonMobil, to the insurgency of Islamist militants in the country’s northern Cabo Delgado province has signalled their perception of where the conflict is headed. Meeting with government authorities, the company officials did not press for a cessastion of violence that was threatening their investments, but merely for the deployment of more troops to guard their operations. Some oil installations have already been attacked. By their request for security, the oil majors were admitting there was no immediate solution to the terror operations now five years old, or their faith that government has a plan or ability to suppress the insurrection. Rather, the oil firms want protection beyond what their private security companies can provide. Clearly, they believe Mozambique is being challenged by a long-term problem; one that the Southern African Development Community has finally admitted has regional repercussions. Ironically, through their unkept promises to the people of Cabo Delgado, the energy companies are also responsible for their unsettled security situation.
Analysis in brief: South Africa’s ban on the sale and transportation of alcoholic beverages came as a response to the Covid-19 outbreak. However, the immediate success the ban has produced in lowering deaths, injuries and domestic violence raises the obvious question of how to retain these benefits when the ban is lifted at the end of the crisis. Alcohol abuse in South Africa is just one social malady that may get the attention and remedial action it deserves as society re-examines itself in the wake of the historic pandemic.
South Africa is the bellwether of Sub-Saharan Africa. From providing a new model for African democracy in the post-Cold War era to showing how a diversified economy buttressed by cutting-edge technology and good transportation infrastructure produces the most vibrant economy, Africa’s southern-most nation has been the paradigm to be emulated. With the outbreak of Covid-19, South Africa’s mitigation strategy, most notably its nationwide lockdown, has been duplicated by neighbouring countries. One mitigation that seemed radical for Africa’s largest wine producer and exporter was a ban on the sale and transportation of alcoholic beverages. Yet, no public objection arose because the need was explained, and the benefits were soon apparent. Three weeks after South Africa imposed the ban, the World Health Organisation on 14 April 2020 recommended that alcohol consumption should be restricted to reduce the spread of Covid-19.
Analysis in brief: Despite Africa’s well-known vulnerability to infectious outbreaks, the continent has shown great resilience in handling the COVID-19 outbreak so far. Many African countries have responded relatively quickly to testing and containment measures, which have significantly slowed the spread of contagion and saved the continent some precious time to ramp up healthcare resources. A number of factors have contributed to the continent’s preparedness, including the experiences learnt in dealing with previous epidemics such as Cholera and Ebola.
The new coronavirus, which originated in China almost four months ago, currently constitutes one of the biggest threats to humanity, claiming thousands of lives and sickening over a million others worldwide. The virus has extended to more than 200 countries and territories around the globe, has infected over 2 million people and killed more than 140,000 others as of the April 17th, 2020. In Africa, the spread of the virus has been slow relative to the rest of the world. Compared to the United States (US) for example, where the number of COVID-19 cases has risen exponentially from around 35,000 in the second week of March to over 670,000 presently (Johns Hopkins University, 2020), Africa has reported over 16,200 positive cases during the same period (Africanews, 2020).
Analysis in brief: With Trump’s execution of the renowned and highly (locally) respected Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, the tension between the USA and Iran has significantly been exacerbated. If the case of Archduke Franz Ferdinand is used as a benchmark then Soleimani’s assassination is considerably more disconcerting for the world. While it is a given that the conflict between the USA and Iran will have a severe impact on the Middle East, the topic of war between these two states and the potential for wider conflict in the form of World War III leaves questions as to the extent that African countries might be impacted. To this end, this position paper briefly outlines the recent developments of the USA-Iran conflict and aims to assess the various routes through which African countries will feel the impact of this contemporary conflict.
Analysis in brief: Investment
and trade go hand in hand with economic growth. The latest Africa Country
Benchmark Report shows that these underpin African economies that perform the
best in this year’s in-depth analysis of African country performance.
The exhaustive analysis of leading economic indicators – providing insight into the performances of African economies gauged by individual countries, both regionally and continentally – shows a strong link between economic growth and investment and trade. This connection, which is the basis for optimism over the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is established in the findings of the 2019 edition of the Africa Country Benchmark Report (ACBR).
An assessment of Botswana’s socio-political landscape
Long considered a beacon of democracy and good governance, Botswana’s 2019 General Election was the first true test of the democratic experiment running since 1966. Known primarily for its diamond mining industry and as a safe haven for African elephants, Botswana made headlines when the lifting of its elephant hunting ban in early 2019 saw the sons of the country’s founding father leave the party that he had formed. What transpired subsequently has been a cunning battle of politics and extravagant campaigns, culminating in the most tightly contested elections in the history of the country.
IOA’s latest special report contextualises Botswana’s socio-political landscape in the lead up to the 2019 General Election, and looks to analyse the events preceding the election and their impact on the final election outcome. A further value-add which the report provides is the codification of common socio-political practices and general knowledge that is widely known by most Batswana, yet tends to lack in the broader literature. The main aim of this report is to equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to better-understand the country’s political and social dynamics, and their subsequent impact on the outcome of the 2019 election.
The GroupM Africa Media Index (AMI), produced in collaboration with In On Africa (IOA), focuses on 14 of East, Southern and West Africa’s largest media markets. The index is designed to inform media investors and advertisers about opportunities, while also highlighting problems that stand in the way of profitable investment and effective advertising. Balancing raw data with the media sector are surveys conducted with experts in the field. Their perceptions provide depth to the report’s data structure and capture the enthusiasm or pessimism relating to particular aspects of the media environment. From these voices, businesses can hear direction on where to grow their brands.
One conclusion stands out in this report: Africans are diverse as individuals but tend to have uniform tastes in what they wish to receive from their media services. Enabled by the latest technology, investors can meet consumer needs and advertisers can tap into consumer desires.
The 2019 Africa Country Benchmark Report demonstrates how investment and trade are driving economic growth in Africa
By James Hall
Analysis in brief: Investment and trade go hand in hand with economic growth. The latest Africa Country Benchmark Report shows that these underpin African economies that perform the best in this year’s in-depth analysis of African country performance.
The exhaustive analysis of leading economic indicators – providing insight into the performances of African economies gauged by individual countries, both regionally and continentally – shows a strong link between economic growth and investment and trade. This connection, which is the basis for optimism over the African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA), is established in the findings of the 2019 edition of the Africa Country Benchmark Report (ACBR).