Position Papers

Analysis in brief: The digital revolution has enabled African countries to broaden access to financial services for the benefit of all Africans. Smart phones have been central to this transformation. With new methods of purchasing goods and obtaining loans, African countries are also better positioned to address the challenge of national financial sovereignty. Economists are concerned that international banking systems and lending institutions, on which African nations have long depended, represent a form of neo‑colonialism. As a result, Africans are turning to technological solutions and capital‑investment institutions that offer the continent genuine financial independence.

On multiple fronts, African nations are asserting their economic independence by distancing themselves from international financial institutions that have long dominated global commerce. This new financial autonomy is being undertaken by national and regional institutions. Established institutions expanding their roles and newly-established institutions are facilitating the movement and investment of money across African borders.

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Analysis in brief: In pursuit of safe countries where citizens can prosper and investors feel secure, Africa is using its new geopolitical positioning in a multipolar world to reshape foreign relationships away from traditional aid and raw-resource trade. The repositioning aims to build more equitable relationships that can strengthen Africa’s security goals.

Any government’s primary duty is to protect its citizens from harm, from natural disasters to man-made security threats, such as domestic terrorism and incursions by foreign entities. Security is the bedrock of a stable and prosperous society. It is also a primary consideration for investors, who seek environments where their business interests can operate freely without concern over crime or conflict.

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Analysis in brief: Africa’s digital evolution is entering a governance phase. African nations are taking control of their online information systems as a part of an overall effort to assert governance over artificial intelligence, data and digital and telecommunications infrastructure to shape long-term economic and strategic outcomes.

Digital infrastructure is more than the physical mechanism that allows data to flow from generator to user. It is how that data is generated, how it is transmitted and received and how it is policed to ensure its truthfulness and reliability. The World Bank argues Africa must invest heavily in artificial intelligence (AI) to address social, economic and environmental challenges. However, it also notes a structural dilemma: Many African countries lack the regulatory and digital infrastructure needed to support the very technological solutions that can improve government efficiency.

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Analysis in brief: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026 signalled the wisdom and foresight of African port infrastructure investment, which has shifted from capacity expansion to strategic resilience. This has been noted in not only ports but also in transportation hubs like airports, rail systems and from logistics platforms. These are being reconfigured to adapt to environmental challenges and disruptions from foreign conflicts, thereby helping to secure African economies against geopolitical risk.

A consistent trend throughout the 21st century has been African nations investing in improving transportation infrastructure. This has been true even for countries experiencing conflict, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Libya. There is broad agreement among African policymakers that modern and expansive transportation infrastructure is necessary for Africa to achieve the economic transformation goals its nations seek. These goals include industrialisation to enable value-added manufacturing of natural resources that are now shipped in their raw state to users overseas.

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Analysis in brief: African nations are rethinking how value is captured from the energy supplies and minerals contained within their borders. Climate pressure, energy transition demands and geopolitical competitions are driving the opportunities to exert greater control over natural resources and ensure higher financial returns for finite mineral resources.

For decades, African policymakers have put forward the prospect of a continental interest group to control pricing of natural resources coming out of Africa, following the example of oil-producing countries who determine world oil prices through the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The main obstacle to the acceptance of such a body has been the fear of loss of national sovereignty over countries’ most valuable economic assets.

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IOA goes beyond the listing of key developments that will shape African affairs in economic, political and societal matters that usually characterise predictions of the year ahead. IOA surpasses these routine projections and identifies the trends that will push these developments towards resolution.

Important developments shaping the Africa of 2026 will not always be pan-African in nature. Some key advances in trade and security will affect every African Union (AU) member state. Other developments may be local in nature but have repercussions that are concrete in some instances or merely symbolic in others. These local events will reverberate beyond the primary countries involved.

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Trends make order out of developments. While 2025 saw a medley of individual developments striking with regularity in all fields of human endeavour, these could be better comprehended for the role they play by placing them within ongoing trends.

Throughout the year, IOA has been noting and analysing developments key to Africa’s economic and societal growth. These can be catalogued in four main thematic areas: Developmental, Economic, Political and Technological. For more details, IOA position paper analyses of each of these topics are available on the IOA website, but for now, IOA highlights two defining developments in each field made in 2025.

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Analysis in brief: Through investment in the energy, information and communications technology and transportation sectors, the People’s Republic of China has vastly expanded Africa’s essential developmental infrastructure. Such assistance also brings financial and political benefits to China. These projects are financed through interest-bearing loans from Chinese state banks, and Chinese state companies are financially rewarded. However, dependence on Chinese suppliers and management poses risks for African nations, particularly concerning control over telecommunications and port systems. These risks remain largely hypothetical and can be offset through foresight and diversified investment.

Africa’s development paradigm of the 21st century is often presented in the media as a contrast: the West primarily engages Africa as a market for natural resources, while China and the East position themselves as development partners. Supporters of this view indicate that the substantial expansion of African infrastructure has been achieved with Chinese assistance. Growth has occurred primarily in three sectors, creating the potential for dangers when partnerships devolve into dependency, prompting strategies to avoid this pitfall, which is as yet more of a theoretical threat than a reality.

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Analysis in brief: The United Nations continues its history of developmental and security support in Africa in 2025. The trilateral alliance with the African Union, the European Union and the United Nations on policy implementation will boost the number and effectiveness of programmes directed at key issues like climate change initiatives. Furthermore, the United Nations’ work will continue to be the essential heart of international support for Africa.

United Nations (UN) and African relations fall into three categories. The first is security. UN peacekeeping missions to unstable parts of Africa are ongoing, except in Somalia, where a new African Union (AU) initiative launched on 1 January, 2025, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), has been put in place to help secure the fragile nation. The second thread in African-UN relations is environmental policy, comprising food security, migration, economic development, disaster mitigation and environmental issues. This category particularly focuses on climate change and the means to finance these policies. Third, the UN and Africa are closer to elevating the African voice in the world body. This is evidenced by joint African Union (AU) and UN initiatives and both bodies’ desire to pursue narrative diplomacy by granting an African UN member state a permanent chair on the UN Security Council.

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Analysis in brief: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was built for electricity generation. By this measure, the project has been a short-term success, but in the long-term, environmental concerns arise. Proactive mitigation efforts are underway to ensure that climate change will not render the dam obsolete.

The environmental costs of most proposed dams, as well as financial considerations and engineering challenges, tend to make any new dam project controversial. For Ethiopia, the degree of controversy when it announced plans to dam the Nile River for hydroelectric generation led to Egypt and Sudan inferring warfare to secure their water rights.

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Analysis in brief: Commercial activity at any African port is a direct gauge of the host nation’s trade health and a broader indicator of its foreign alliances – whether regional, continental or international. The African Continental Free Trade Area is becoming a reality, evidenced by the changing shipping routes around the continent.

Seaports provide an infrastructure snapshot of a country’s economic activity at any given time. The volume of vessels that leave ports, their destinations and their types of cargo can reveal much about a country’s agricultural outputs, industrial activities, and even employment fortunes. In late 2025, after the US implemented higher trade tariffs on 8 August 2025, African exports to the US were greatly reduced, compelling African nations on their ongoing search for new markets, both through intra-Africa trade and overseas. Changing shipping patterns will affect port infrastructures; however, these shifts in international markets can take time to develop into a full picture.

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