Position Papers

Analysis in brief: In a volatile continent, some African countries have achieved political stability that provides the foundation for national peace and prosperity. A ranking Africa’s five most-stable countries finds a commitment to citizen-driven democracy is the foundation for their success.

Political stability is valued by citizens who are fortunate to live in a country governed with that quality. It is also valued by the business sector of such a country, for upon a foundation of normalised peace, prosperity can take root. International bodies are likewise grateful for politically stable countries that provide a regional shield against neighbouring nations in conflict or political turmoil.

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Analysis in brief: Regarded as the means to achieve digital inclusiveness in Africa, digital education will result in greater individual opportunities, as well as national economic and societal growth. This continental push is being spurred by several public and private partnership initiatives to overcome connectivity and literacy challenges.

Educating Africans in digital technology is made simpler by the fact that, in 2024, for the first time, a majority of Africans have internet technology, exemplified by the 51% of Sub-Saharan Africans who own smart phones. By 2030, an overwhelming majority of 88% of Sub-Saharan Africans will possess these devices. This is the start of a digitally literate population, who use apps for banking, amusement, news and more complex tasks. Meanwhile, digital education is increasing in schools, where students learn that their futures depend on mastering digital technologies.

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Analysis in brief: Centuries of colonialism dispossessed many Africans of their land. Radical attempts at land reform in the past have failed, neither mitigating inequality nor improving food production. South Africa has allowed the market to function as one mechanism for redistributing land, while also pioneering a pragmatic approach that focuses on poverty eradication through sound land management.

Land reform is a politically sensitive issue. Demagoguery has often hindered the resolution of this issue. Zimbabwe’s confiscation of white-owned land, originally taken during the colonial era, led to deaths, chaos, lawsuits and a collapse in food production, further weakening the country’s economy. Making productive land unproductive by removing expertise and capital proved not to be a solution.

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Analysis in brief: Rail lines are among African nations’ most valuable assets, but many countries cannot afford their upkeep. Privatisation has been the preferred method of shifting the maintenance burden from the transportation sector to the investment sector, raising infrastructure standards that, in turn, spur trade-related revenue and employment.

Twenty years have passed since the first comprehensive study of the degree of improvement in Africa’s rail transportation systems by the privatisation of state-owned railways. The privatisation had been accomplished primarily through concession agreements. At the time of the 2005 World Bank study, 20 state-owned rail lines were either undergoing privatisation or had concessions granted by governments. The study found that progress varied: Some deals were cancelled, others were delayed by wars, and some suffered from weather-related disasters or other calamities. On the whole, the bank found, “The railways (that have been privatised) are performing better than if they had not been concessioned.”

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Analysis in brief: Franco-African relations have long been framed from the French perspective. However, as new nationalist sentiments sweep Francophone Africa, African countries are asserting their own priorities and renegotiating economic deals with their former coloniser from the perspective of how they will benefit.

There is great symbolism in the way that Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye is delivering speeches. He speaks in the local Wolof language and French. Faye has been in office for one year, elected in April 2024 on the explicit promise to lessen the nation’s dependency on its former coloniser, France. Half of the world’s 300 million French speakers live in Africa, where French is the official language of dozens of countries. However, after military coups overthrew governments in Francophone Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali, their juntas cut military ties with France and downgraded the official position of the French language in their countries. Less dramatically, economic and military ties are being refashioned on a basis more equitable to African partners.

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Analysis in brief: The goal of the African Continental Free Trade Area is to make Africa a single market with no trade restrictions between countries. The work to make that a reality is being carried out on local levels between countries.

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a structural blueprint awaiting construction. The treaty’s architects have finished their work. A majority of African nations required to put the plan into effect have signed on. What remains is for engineers to begin working in individual nations to enable legislation to support this initiative and for builders like financiers, contractors and operators to carry out actual projects. Essentially, the AfCFTA seeks to further open Africa to cross-border trade by dropping tariffs and other trade barriers, thereby facilitating easier trade among African countries.

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Analysis in brief: Africa’s energy goals are closely tied to advancements in battery storage technology – not only in the generation of electricity but also in its efficient storage and distribution. Considerable progress in the past two years show a continent-wide commitment to expanding battery storage capacity.

Achieving water security requires more than waiting for rains as it also relies on the storage of the rainwater until it is needed. Africa’s energy security likewise needs to increase its electricity generation and its storage capacity. Traditional grid-based energy distribution will not achieve universal electricity access for all Africans. Over the past 20 years, electricity access in Africa has nearly doubled from 25% to 47%. This is despite the inability to extend long-distance power lines to remote rural areas due to it being financially impractical, leaving 600 million people without electricity in 2025, while 150 million more face unreliable supply. Off-grid energy solutions, powered by battery storage technology, present the most viable path to universal access.

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Analysis in brief: Africa, with its developing export economies, is more vulnerable than other continents to the US-initiated global trade war. To avoid major economic disruptions, countries like South Africa are making strategic plans.

The US sparked a global trade war in January 2025 by mounting an offensive against, first, its largest trade partners and then the entire world, prompting defensive responses from other nations. Retaliatory tariffs put in place by targeted countries became countermeasures in response to sudden and high US tariffs on their products. Major Western countries were astounded but not daunted because of the size and resiliency of their economies. Unfortunately for African countries whose developing economies are delicate and more vulnerable to external shocks like tariffs, the US trade war might lead to the collapse of industries and increased unemployment and poverty.

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Analysis in brief: 2025 is predicted to be a tipping point for the mining of rare earth minerals in Africa. The continent’s output will make significant strides towards a projected accomplishment of providing 10% of global supply within five years. This begins this year as new mining endeavours in Malawi, South Africa and other countries begin operations.

While rare earth minerals are commonplace throughout the earth’s crust, they are described as rare because they tend to be distributed widely but not in concentrated areas that make mining viable. Advantaged by several areas of concentrated minerals, China is the world’s leading producer of rare earth minerals today, accounting for 70% of global supply. There are also abundant pockets in parts of Southern Africa. When Malawi’s Songwe Hill and South Africa’s Steenkampskraal advance to full mining production in 2025, the African continent will take two large steps towards exploiting its critical mineral reserves. These stand at nearly one-third of the world’s reserves (30%), which are being exploited now at a growing rate.

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Analysis in brief: Investors seeking profits in Africa are centring their focus on four broad sectors: energy, agriculture, healthcare and infrastructure. The application of new technologies is making opportunities in Africa even more appealing for the new year.

This article focuses on four key economic sectors that will drive investment trends across Africa in 2025, emphasizing their Pan-African scope rather than focusing on specific countries. For example, every African country has an agriculture sector in need of expansion, and each has (to some degree) sunshine and wind that can be harnessed as a source for clean and renewable energy, with the consequence that investors are focusing on the development of technologies and energy solutions that may be applied in most parts of Africa. Healthcare is another area whose scope is continental, yet every country has infrastructure requiring improvement.

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Analysis in brief: The past year brought developments that should reap political, economic and cultural opportunities for Africa in 2025. A summation of the most important of these shows an economically maturing Africa, gaining prominence on the world stage.

Each new year brings new opportunities for investment and business deals that are made possible by encouraging economic developments, which in turn are facilitated by promising political developments. The year 2025 offers new opportunities based on 2024’s advancements, which established trends that seem likely to come into greater focus in the months ahead. This article discusses five forecasts that are likely to influence the fortunes of investors in 2025.

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