Position Papers

Analysis in brief: China and India are leading efforts to shift African trade away from the US, following the imposition of Washington’s tariffs on African goods in 2025. Russia, too, is positioning itself to expand bilateral trade with the continent.

African trade links with China, India and Russia are not new. Each has been growing steadily since the BRICS trade bloc was established in 2009, an intergovernmental organisation comprising Brazil, India, China, Russia, and South Africa, among others. What is new in 2025 is the imposition of tariffs on African goods, reducing the continent’s access to US markets. There are exceptions because US manufacturers covet Africa’s natural resources like rare earth minerals. For the rest of Africa’s products, Washington’s tariffs range from 15% on Ghanaian goods to 30% on South African goods and 50% on Lesotho goods.

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Analysis in brief: Africa’s digital transformation is being pushed by demand from businesses and ordinary citizens, whose needs in the modern electronic world can only be met by internet connectivity. Like all infrastructure, the digital realm begins with policies that guide development, training to develop skilled workforces, and technologies to access this digital space. Throughout Africa, digital policymaking and infrastructure development is being led by some high-profile initiatives.

That Africa’s digital connectivity stood at 34% in 2024 is not due to a lack of interest from Africans. Less than four out of every 10 Africans had internet access at this time, despite it being increasingly vital for communication, education, entertainment, finances and health needs. Policies and investments have not stimulated the growth of digital public infrastructure (DPI) needed for such connectivity. However, governmental policymaking, promoted by the Digital Trade Protocol of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is largely in place now throughout Africa. Now that all African nations are members of the AfCFTA, digital policymaking is advancing. Guided by such policies, investment is following.

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Analysis in brief: African nations are focused on a goal of energy self-sufficiency, striving to achieve this task with government policies and enthusiastic private investment. Inefficiencies in existing oil refining operations are also being addressed to ensure nations’ energy security as new large-scale projects go online or are announced with increasing frequency.

Africa’s oil refining industry is characterised by a mix of established facilities and new projects of unprecedented scale. While Nigeria leads in new refinery investment, South Africa has an established and sizeable refinery capacity to build on, the largest being ENREF and Sapref’s refineries in Durban. Like other African countries, South Africa is expanding its refining capacity by rehabilitating older facilities, not exclusively building new ones.

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Analysis in brief: China’s efforts to position its currency, the yuan, as a rival to the US dollar in international transactions, have gained traction in Africa. African governments and private sectors are increasingly using the yuan, driven partly by growing Chinese investments in Africa and partly by a broader shift away from dependence on the US.

African governments are not replacing their national currencies with the Chinese yuan, nor are they formally linking their currencies to it or joining its currency, the renminbi (RMB). Although the Yuan is a measure of the renminbi, yuan is often used by non-Chinese in preference to the more cumbersome renminbi or RMB. While the usage of the yuan in Africa in preference to the US dollar in Africa is not an immediate likelihood, China’s formal invitation to African nations to join its yuan-based cross-border payment system has elicited interest from African central banks. Beijing aims to internationalise the yuan and reduce reliance on the US dollar in global financial transactions.

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Analysis in brief: Africa is assessing the impact of the recent conflict on African economic and security interests, which have been thrown into confusion by a clash between its two allies, Iran and Israel. Although neither country has a strong presence in Africa, both wish for closer ties. Those ambitions are on hold as their military confrontation continues.

A surprise Israeli attack on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on 13 June 2025 began the latest Middle East escalation. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks that managed to penetrate Israel’s defence shields and claimed multiple lives. Ceasefire pacts have been broken, and there is no end in sight for hostilities. As with any international conflict, nations far away from the theatre of battle consider the economic and diplomatic toll they might possibly encounter. For Africa, energy and shipping considerations are the foremost concerns.

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Analysis in brief: African nations are deploying space satellites in record numbers, thanks to inexpensive nanotechnology. Small but sophisticated, these African devices in Earth orbit are providing a wealth of data to enable their sponsoring countries to achieve their socio-economic goals.

As of 2025, 61 African satellites orbit the Earth. 30 years ago, there were none, even though satellites were already commonplace at that time for communications and data collection. Today, those same two functions are being utilised by 18 African countries, whose space programmes took a giant leap forward with the establishment of the African Space Agency (AfSA) on 20 April 2025.

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Analysis in brief: In a volatile continent, some African countries have achieved political stability that provides the foundation for national peace and prosperity. A ranking Africa’s five most-stable countries finds a commitment to citizen-driven democracy is the foundation for their success.

Political stability is valued by citizens who are fortunate to live in a country governed with that quality. It is also valued by the business sector of such a country, for upon a foundation of normalised peace, prosperity can take root. International bodies are likewise grateful for politically stable countries that provide a regional shield against neighbouring nations in conflict or political turmoil.

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Analysis in brief: Regarded as the means to achieve digital inclusiveness in Africa, digital education will result in greater individual opportunities, as well as national economic and societal growth. This continental push is being spurred by several public and private partnership initiatives to overcome connectivity and literacy challenges.

Educating Africans in digital technology is made simpler by the fact that, in 2024, for the first time, a majority of Africans have internet technology, exemplified by the 51% of Sub-Saharan Africans who own smart phones. By 2030, an overwhelming majority of 88% of Sub-Saharan Africans will possess these devices. This is the start of a digitally literate population, who use apps for banking, amusement, news and more complex tasks. Meanwhile, digital education is increasing in schools, where students learn that their futures depend on mastering digital technologies.

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Analysis in brief: Centuries of colonialism dispossessed many Africans of their land. Radical attempts at land reform in the past have failed, neither mitigating inequality nor improving food production. South Africa has allowed the market to function as one mechanism for redistributing land, while also pioneering a pragmatic approach that focuses on poverty eradication through sound land management.

Land reform is a politically sensitive issue. Demagoguery has often hindered the resolution of this issue. Zimbabwe’s confiscation of white-owned land, originally taken during the colonial era, led to deaths, chaos, lawsuits and a collapse in food production, further weakening the country’s economy. Making productive land unproductive by removing expertise and capital proved not to be a solution.

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Analysis in brief: Rail lines are among African nations’ most valuable assets, but many countries cannot afford their upkeep. Privatisation has been the preferred method of shifting the maintenance burden from the transportation sector to the investment sector, raising infrastructure standards that, in turn, spur trade-related revenue and employment.

Twenty years have passed since the first comprehensive study of the degree of improvement in Africa’s rail transportation systems by the privatisation of state-owned railways. The privatisation had been accomplished primarily through concession agreements. At the time of the 2005 World Bank study, 20 state-owned rail lines were either undergoing privatisation or had concessions granted by governments. The study found that progress varied: Some deals were cancelled, others were delayed by wars, and some suffered from weather-related disasters or other calamities. On the whole, the bank found, “The railways (that have been privatised) are performing better than if they had not been concessioned.”

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Analysis in brief: Franco-African relations have long been framed from the French perspective. However, as new nationalist sentiments sweep Francophone Africa, African countries are asserting their own priorities and renegotiating economic deals with their former coloniser from the perspective of how they will benefit.

There is great symbolism in the way that Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye is delivering speeches. He speaks in the local Wolof language and French. Faye has been in office for one year, elected in April 2024 on the explicit promise to lessen the nation’s dependency on its former coloniser, France. Half of the world’s 300 million French speakers live in Africa, where French is the official language of dozens of countries. However, after military coups overthrew governments in Francophone Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali, their juntas cut military ties with France and downgraded the official position of the French language in their countries. Less dramatically, economic and military ties are being refashioned on a basis more equitable to African partners.

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